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Jeevan thinks that a six-sided die is biased in favour of six. In order to test this, Jeevan throws the die 10 times. If the die shows a six on at least 4 throws out of 10, she will conclude that she is correct.

a) State appropriate null and alternative hypotheses.

b) Calculate the probability of a Type I error.

c) Explain what is meant by a Type II error in this situation.

d) If the die is actually biased so that the probability of throwing a six is $\frac{1}{2}$, calculate the probability of a Type II error.

پاسخ تشریحی :
نمایش پاسخ

a) ${H_0}:P\left( 6 \right) = \frac{1}{6}$

${H_1}:P\left( 6 \right) \gt \frac{1}{6}$

b) ${\left( {\frac{5}{6}} \right)^{10}} + 10 \times {\left( {\frac{5}{6}} \right)^9} \times \frac{1}{6} + \left( \begin{gathered}  10 \hfill \\  \,\,2 \hfill \\ \end{gathered}  \right) \times {\left( {\frac{5}{6}} \right)^8} \times {\frac{1}{6}^2} + \left( \begin{gathered}  10 \hfill \\  \,3 \hfill \\ \end{gathered}  \right) \times {\left( {\frac{5}{6}} \right)^7} \times {\left( {\frac{1}{6}} \right)^3}$

$1 - ({\left( {\frac{5}{6}} \right)^{10}} + 10 \times {\left( {\frac{5}{6}} \right)^9} \times \frac{1}{6} + \left( \begin{gathered}  10 \hfill \\  \,2 \hfill \\ \end{gathered}  \right) \times {\left( {\frac{5}{6}} \right)^8} \times {\left( {\frac{1}{2}} \right)^2}$

$ + \left( \begin{gathered}  10 \hfill \\  \,3 \hfill \\ \end{gathered}  \right) \times {\left( {\frac{5}{6}} \right)^7} \times {\left( {\frac{1}{6}} \right)^3})$

$ = 0.0697$ (3 sfs)

c) Die biased towards a six but result $ \lt 4$ so no evidence of bias

d) P(0, 1, 2 or 3 sixes)

$({\left( {\frac{1}{2}} \right)^{10}} + 10 \times {\left( {\frac{1}{2}} \right)^9} \times \frac{1}{2} + \left( \begin{gathered}  10 \hfill \\  \,\,2 \hfill \\ \end{gathered}  \right) \times {\left( {\frac{1}{2}} \right)^8} \times {\left( {\frac{1}{2}} \right)^2} + \left( \begin{gathered}  10 \hfill \\  \,3 \hfill \\ \end{gathered}  \right) \times {\left( {\frac{1}{2}} \right)^7} \times {\left( {\frac{1}{2}} \right)^3})$

$ = 0.172$ or $11/64$

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