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In the past, the number of house sales completed per week by a building company has been modelled by a random variable which has the distribution $Po\left( {0.8} \right)$. Following a publicity campaign, the builders hope that the mean number of sales per week will increase. In order to test at the 5% significance level whether this is the case, the total number of sales during the first 3 weeks after the campaign is noted. It is assumed that a Poisson model is still appropriate.

a) Given that the total number of sales during the 3 weeks is 5, carry out the test.

b) During the following 3 weeks the same test is carried out again, using the same significance level. Find the probability of a Type I error.

c) Explain what is meant by a Type I error in this context.

d) State what further information would be required in order to find the probability of a Type II error.

پاسخ تشریحی :
نمایش پاسخ

a) ${H_0}:$ mean no. sales $ = 2.4$

${H_1}:$ mean no. sales $ \gt 2.4$

$P\left( {X \geqslant 5} \right)$

$ = 1 - {e^{ - 2.4}}(1 + 2.4 + \frac{{{{2.4}^2}}}{{2!}} + \frac{{{{2.4}^3}}}{{3!}} + \frac{{{{2.4}^4}}}{{4!}}$

$( = 1 - 0.9041))$

$ = 0.0959$

Comp with $0.05$

No evidence to believe mean sales incr

b) Need ${1^{st}}x$ such that $P\left( {X \geqslant x} \right) \lt 0.05$

$P\left( {X \geqslant 6} \right) = 1 - {e^{ - 2.4}}(1 + 2.4 + {\text{ }}.{\text{ }}.{\text{ }}.{\text{ }} + \frac{{{{2.4}^5}}}{{5!}})$

$( = 1 - 0.9643)$

$ = 0.0357$

c) Mean sales still $0.8$ per week, but $ \geqslant 6$ sales in $3$ weeks, so reject $0.8$.

d) Value of true (new, changed) mean oe

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