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At an election in 2010, 15% of voters in Bratfield voted for the Renewal Party. One year later, a researcher asked 30 randomly selected voters in Bratfield whether they would vote for the Renewal Party if there were an election next week. 2 of these 30 voters said that they would.

a) Use a binomial distribution to test, at the 4% significance level, the null hypothesis that there has been no change in the support for the Renewal Party in Bratfield against the alternative hypothesis that there has been a decrease in support since the 2010 election.

b)(i) Explain why the conclusion in part (a) cannot involve a Type I error.

(ii) State the circumstances in which the conclusion in part (a) would involve a Type II error.

پاسخ تشریحی :
نمایش پاسخ

a) ${0.85^{30}} + 30 \times {0.85^{29}} \times 0.15 + {}^{30}{C_2} \times {0.85^{28}} \times {0.15^2}$

$ = 0.151$

$ \gt 0.04$

No evidence decrease or Accept no decrease

b)(i) Not rejected Ho

(ii) Has been decrease or

$\pi $ (or $p$) ${\text{ \lt 0}}{\text{.15}}$

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